what are the possible paths for the GOP to win the election? I think the the economy in 2016 is the key. If the economy is doing very well, no recession, unemployment is low, no major domestic or international issues, then people will feel good about the party the incumbent belongs to, then the D will almost certain retain the White House; if the economy is bad, some major issues dominate the national scene, then people will feel the country is on the wrong track, which will give R a good chance to take back the WH.
Never heard about the "Clinton Recession"? Some republicans had labored pretty hard to pin the early 2000s recession's start date as in Clinton's final years, using monthly economic data and Dot-com's bubble burst (and the Nasdaq crash) as evidence.
Karl Rove would not agree with you, my friend. I heard saying on the TV on election night 2012 that PanHandle county would once again deliver for replicants, just as in 2000. Off course it did not happen in 2012.