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PAChat 交火M1-华人问政 ( 1381 Members )
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    交火M1-华人问政
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  • 青青子衿
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    • Go 谈云 Go, don't lose your cool
  • 管昕
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    • @Tony Xu @谈云识天气 @Henry Yang 这样多欢乐啊,诸位都是高人,水平都比我高,看你们思想碰撞我很受启发的。
  • Henry Yang
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    • @管昕 和谈云碰啥撞,给他挑挑错找找乐而已
  • 青青子衿
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    • @Henry Yang 
  • Henry Yang
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    • Hillary vs. Biden Would Get Ugly Fast - The Daily Beast
      http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/25/hillary-vs-biden-would-get-ugly-fast.html
  • 管昕
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    • 几位慢慢聊,我先撤了,晚上有空再跟进大家的讨论。祝各位都有个愉快的下午时光
  • 陈珂
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    • @Tony Xu 希望稀拉里出线,攻击点多啊,可以打出图案来
  • 谈云识天气
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    • There is real life, you know, work, family stuff
  • 老客Cliff李忠刚-sFL, DC
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    • @David R Li @谈云识天气 @Christine @steven chen Frankly,it was very disappointing 听到Jeb说 "Frankly, It's More Related to Asian People”. Jeb campaign 把西裔放到胜选的战略位置这可以理解,谁也不重视亚裔,投票率和人数都那么低,而且一进华裔社区,第一印象就是尖锐对立。但一直认为Jeb自己很重视亚裔,Bush家族向来也是对华最友好的总统。我觉得Jeb这个人一向不会说话,被人追问澄清中说的会不会是华人来生孩子的现象本身,而不是针对亚裔整体,未必能立刻下结论。但这种下意识里的表达值得注意。Jeb的温和理念到底对美国和亚裔是否有利,到底对亚裔是否重视,需要继续关注,包括我自己,不能随便下结论。
  • 宇文大盛
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    • 中国著名书画家魏恒斌莅临洛杉矶 南加華人热烈欢迎
      【環球通訊社訊】中国现代著名书画家魏恒斌伉俪,8月19日上午乘坐中国航空公司班机, 抵达洛杉矶国际机场,
  • Henry Yang
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    • @老客Cliff李忠刚 华裔孕妇在美国生孩子拿美国公民身份是事实。当然非法移民是更大的问题。但是现在共和党的主流候选人都不敢得罪非法移民,民主党更是积极支持鼓非法移民。只有Trump无所畏惧,所以才得到那么高的支持。
  • 谈云识天气
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    • @Henry Yang what you're interested is called "horse race" in U.S. political term. Basically who's up who's down today. It's fun, lots of fodder for chat. Maybe because I'm a professional statistician, and I know "Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future." I'm willing to wait for more data points. On election prediction the best person is probably Nate Silver. I followed him in 2008 and 2012 cycles. I've read his book. I listened to his talk at JSM. He gets statistics.
  • Henry Yang
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    • @谈云识天气 I am not predicting anything, just let you folks know the trend
  • Henry Yang
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    • BTW, what was Silver's prediction on 2014 mid-term election, where democrats lost everywhere in landslides
  • 🍎郑仙格格
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    • They should! The biggest money burning machine!
  • 谈云识天气
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    • Can we let go the partisan stuff for just one day? Talk about the process, technical stuff? We can get back to the fight tomorrow.
  • 🍎郑仙格格
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    • The weather is nice today. Very comfie.
  • 解滨
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    • And I feel great!
  • 谈云识天气
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    • @Henry Yang I don't remember what he did for 2014. You can look it up. What I know is that it is much harder to predict congressional races during off years because the amount of data available.
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  • 🍎郑仙格格
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    • 听说,Biden 上周来麻省,与Warren密谈。
  • 谈云识天气
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    • He is not doing polls. He rely on public polls done by others.
  • 谈云识天气
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    • Silver weight each poll according to their past track records. He also does other very careful modeling.
  • 谈云识天气
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    • Seriously, it is one thing to cheer for your side, it's totally a different thing to do a cool reading of all the available data.
  • 谈云识天气
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    • Silver's personal political view is probably more libertarian.
  • Henry Yang
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    • @谈云识天气 all of the available data point to the decline of Hilary
  • Henry Yang
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  • Tony Xu
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    • @老客Cliff李忠刚 我个人不是jeb的fan,但他老要是初选出线,大选会支持他。虽然加州投他老一票多半是打酱油
  • 陈珂
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    • @Henry Yang 像世界杯,小组赛全胜的球队走不到最后。
  • Tony Xu
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    • @陈珂 但民主党需要黑马
  • Tony Xu
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    • 现在的民调优势,拉里姐就算下降了,还是巨大的
  • 谈云识天气
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    • Karl Rove is another one that is supposedly to be a number guy. But on election night 2012, he has been proven to be more of a loyal republican than a good forecaster. Silver is in a different league. There are other statisticians that also do good election forecast, but they tend to come from academic institutions, not very good at explaining to the public. Nate Silver runs a blog, and he can explain things pretty well.
  • Zhang邀请江南加入了群聊
  • 谈云识天气
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    • I give you one real example but without party identification because I declared unilateral truce for a day.
  • 请警惕任何向你获取或要求你输入帐号密码的行为,务必确认对方的官方身份及官网链接。
  • Tony Xu
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    • http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
  • Tony Xu
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    • 拉里姐仍然20点的领先
  • 谈云识天气
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    • If candidate A leads B for weeks, a new batch of 30 polls come out: A leads B in 29, and B leads A in 1. You know what news media will focus on? The one poll that B leads because it is news because there is nothing surprise in A leading.
  • Henry Yang
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    • @谈云识天气 Rove有党派倾向这是基本政治常识。你不会把他当作statistician 吧
  • 谈云识天气
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    • If you're not paying close attention like most normal busy folks, the news suddenly becomes that B has a chance now.
  • Tony Xu
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    • RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 Presidential Polls
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
  • Tony Xu
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    • 不过三德子在NH超上来,领先7%。
  • 谈云识天气
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    • @Henry Yang You can hold strong political views AND be a good statistician, like me
  • Tony Xu
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    • 但整体上还难以撼动拉里姐。
  • 陈珂
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    • 0808年大选的时候对拉里姐说:猪擦了口红还是猪。8年了,能有变化吗?
  • Henry Yang
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    • @谈云识天气 I never saw you predict anything, other than Blum's invention of top 10% plan will hurt us
  • Tony Xu
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    • 何况三德子募得钱,拉里姐的一个零头
  • Tony Xu
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  • 谈云识天气
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    • @Henry Yang I avoid making predictions because "Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future", remember?
  • 谈云识天气
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    • I won't even say that top 10 percent will definitely hurt us, it is a significant risk. You raised a good point, the similar policy seems to be fine in California. But you forgot that the distribution of Chinese is much more uneven in U.S. as a whole than in California. Think about it. If all or few of US has Chinese population, top 10 percent will be fine. In fact, as long as the Chinese distribution is evenly spread, the top 10 percent would be fine. But we are not distributed evenly crossed the country. We are very chunky.
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