@David R Li @谈云识天气 @Christine @steven chen Frankly,it was very disappointing 听到Jeb说 "Frankly, It's More Related to Asian People”. Jeb campaign 把西裔放到胜选的战略位置这可以理解,谁也不重视亚裔,投票率和人数都那么低,而且一进华裔社区,第一印象就是尖锐对立。但一直认为Jeb自己很重视亚裔,Bush家族向来也是对华最友好的总统。我觉得Jeb这个人一向不会说话,被人追问澄清中说的会不会是华人来生孩子的现象本身,而不是针对亚裔整体,未必能立刻下结论。但这种下意识里的表达值得注意。Jeb的温和理念到底对美国和亚裔是否有利,到底对亚裔是否重视,需要继续关注,包括我自己,不能随便下结论。
@Henry Yang what you're interested is called "horse race" in U.S. political term. Basically who's up who's down today. It's fun, lots of fodder for chat. Maybe because I'm a professional statistician, and I know "Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future." I'm willing to wait for more data points. On election prediction the best person is probably Nate Silver. I followed him in 2008 and 2012 cycles. I've read his book. I listened to his talk at JSM. He gets statistics.
@Henry Yang I don't remember what he did for 2014. You can look it up. What I know is that it is much harder to predict congressional races during off years because the amount of data available.
Karl Rove is another one that is supposedly to be a number guy. But on election night 2012, he has been proven to be more of a loyal republican than a good forecaster. Silver is in a different league. There are other statisticians that also do good election forecast, but they tend to come from academic institutions, not very good at explaining to the public. Nate Silver runs a blog, and he can explain things pretty well.
If candidate A leads B for weeks, a new batch of 30 polls come out: A leads B in 29, and B leads A in 1. You know what news media will focus on? The one poll that B leads because it is news because there is nothing surprise in A leading.
I won't even say that top 10 percent will definitely hurt us, it is a significant risk. You raised a good point, the similar policy seems to be fine in California. But you forgot that the distribution of Chinese is much more uneven in U.S. as a whole than in California. Think about it. If all or few of US has Chinese population, top 10 percent will be fine. In fact, as long as the Chinese distribution is evenly spread, the top 10 percent would be fine. But we are not distributed evenly crossed the country. We are very chunky.
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