logo
Fiorina's Rise Has Just Begun
08/13/2015   By Lara Brown | U.S. News
229
Game-changer?

 

Since her breakout performance during last Thursday's Republican "happy hour" debate, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has moved up in the polls. Moving from low single digits to high single digits, she sits in fifth place surrounded by such big name contenders as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

But more important than how far she's come in one week's time is where she's likely to go between now and the CNN debate on Sept. 16. Frankly, her rise has likely just begun.

As Byron York explained last week, she not only won both debates, but she's also been favorably received by audiences in the early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Aside from the retail politicking, she's very good at getting her points across – clearly and forcefully – during media interviews. She also happens to be relatively deft at delivering sharp-edged insults to her opponents.

Fiorina's negatives seem to pale in comparison to Donald Trump's negatives (no elective office experience, ideologically inconsistent, no official policy positions, two ex-wives and four bankruptcies) and Hillary Clinton's vast trove of political vulnerabilities. (Where exactly does one start?)

Beyond these positives, Fiorina has two advantages over her Republican opponents. First, for those conservative base voters who are looking for to support candidates who are not politicians – true Washington outsiders, not just governors or freshly-minted senators playing the role (e.g., Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul) – she provides an attractive alternative to both real estate magnate Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson. For while she may be derided by her opponents for having been fired as the CEO of Hewlett-Packard, no one can dismiss her years of business experience in the communications and technology sectors. Neither Trump nor Carson have the ability to plausibly claim that they understand how technological innovations are changing business, politics and society.

Second, as the only woman running for the Republican presidential nomination, she may be able to unite conservative women behind her candidacy. According to the latest survey of Iowa Republican primary voters by Public Policy Polling, the percentage of men (56 percent) and women (57 percent) who view Fiorina favorably are nearly equal.

This is not the case for Trump, Walker, Kasich or Cruz. Men view each of these candidates more favorably than women. The gender gaps (the percentage difference between women and men on favorability) are -19 percent for Trump, -11 percent for Walker, -8 percent for Kasich, and -7 percent for Cruz. Even more telling, a large plurality of Republican women view Trump unfavorably (47 percent), while just 36 percent of women view him favorably.

In fact, the only Republican contender who does substantially better on favorability among women than men is former Florida governor Jeb Bush – 50 percent of women view him favorably, whereas 40 percent of men view him favorably (+10 percent gap). Hence, given how unimpressed conservative women seem to be with many of the most highly-regarded Republican contenders, Fiorina's got a lot of opportunity to grow her support and construct a solid base that could help her finish among the top three or four in the early state contests.

Does this mean Fiorina's headed towards winning the GOP nomination? Probably not. It's been centuries since a non-politician, non-military hero has won a major political party's presidential nomination. Still, she's already changed the race and she could end up as the GOP's vice presidential nominee. In short, Fiorina's just getting started.

  •   Publish my comments...
  • 0 Comments